Jab fears

Antarctic summer saw the largest ship ever visit Antarctica: the Star Princess with 3,500 passengers and crew sailed amongst humpback whales and colonies of gentoo penguins. But, at a meeting this month in New Zealand of the treaty nations, several regulations are expected to be tightened for the southern high latitudes with knock-on effects for the Arctic. The meeting may also finally prohibit in international law the construction of hotels in Antarctica, such is the pressure from growing tourist interest. “Right now, the only the only thing that is stopping people building hotels is peer pressure and government pressure,” says James Barnes, executive director of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Coalition. “That’s not good enough. We need a clear, legally binding decision on tourism infrastructure to stop them being built. What kind of future do we want for Antarctica — do we want it to be more accessible or left as pristine as possible? If you want the latter then we have to take steps.” High on the agenda of the meeting will be an assessment of the increase in tourist vessels to Antarctic waters over the past ten years. The treaty states will consider, in collaboration with the International Maritime Organisation, the extreme conditions faced by tourist vessels and the development of mandatory requirements for vessels operating in the area, which would include vessel design, construction, manning and equipment, including survival craft and lifesaving equipment. The cost of cruises may also increase when a ban on the use of heavy fuel oils by vessels is introduced, probably in 2011. Heavy fuel oil is considered more environmentally hazardous than other marine fuel oils because it is slow to break down, particularly in cold polar waters. Cleaner fuel, usually marine diesel, is around two and a half times more expensive, and the Falkland Islands government has expressed fears that prices for tours that take in its waters may become too expensive to be commercially viable. Both poles are now presenting the tourism industry, conservationists, and scientists with new challenges. The spectacular calving of ice shelves in Antarctica and the disintegration of the polar ice cap in the Arctic — scientists at the British Antarctic Survey say there is a good chance the North Pole will be free of summer ice in little more than a decade — have created opportunities and hazards for tourism. Warming of the poles will have some advantage for tourism, according to Steve Wellmeier, executive director of the International Association of Antarctic Tour Operators, pointing to greater access to the north-west and northeast passages, and potentially greater access to the Weddell Sea in Antarctica as ice melts. “But for Antarctica, there are probably some negatives,” he said. “Warming means a faster breakup of winter sea ice, which affects penguin populations and breeding success. Some colonies might eventually become less attractive for tourist visits because of reduced populations, encouraging tour operators to seek either new areas or concentrate on those that have stable or growing populations. But greater numbers of meandering icebergs and more cruise liners — many like the Star Princess, carrying thousands of passengers — has led to concern about the safety of tourists and the pristine environments in which they are now able to move. Two tourist ships have already come to grief in Antarctica: in January 2007 the Nordkapp ran aground near Deception Island and in November that year, the Explorer sank after hitting ice but all 154 passengers were rescued by a passing cruise ship. And last month the Kapitan Khlebnikov became temporarily stuck in ice on a voyage to visit penguin colonies. “As traffic increases in both polar areas, we are seeing increasing incidents of ship groundings and collisions,” says Pat Lewis of the WWF’s International Arctic Programme. However, environmental campaigners, acknowledging the beauty of the poles, are keen to stress that a balance must be struck. “There are certainly benefits, says Lewis, “not least of all the fact that this beautiful environment inspires many visitors to return home with an increased empathy and understanding of the environment and a commitment to make an increased effort to support action to reduce climate change.” As the saying goes, when you’re a hammer, everything looks like a nail. And if you cover the White House, everything looks like a presidential problem. Even the flu. In late October, a New York Times political reporter warned that swine flu was a big political test for President Obama, and one the president appeared to be endanger of muffing. “Now, despite months of planning and preparation, a vaccine shortage is threatening to undermine public confidence in government, creating a very public test of Mr. Obama’s competence,” the Times proclaimed. Mediawatch: Richard F. Harris looks at the response to the US’s efforts to get swine flu vaccination under way given the concerns about production and many people afraid to get it. Jab fears